SACCI Business Confidence Index Hits 125.4 in July 2026
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The July SACCI's Business Confidence Index came out at 125.4. That is up from June, and well up on last year. So confidence is rising even though some important measures of real economic activity remain weak. When we read the rest of the report we see that factory output is down 3.7% on last year. Building plans are down 16%. Liquidations went from 221 in May to 245 in June. So confidence is rising while real business activity falls. Is this really good news?
That gap is worth a conversation with your clients this month.
First, what the BCI actually is
South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) publishes a Business Confidence Index (BCI) every month. It is called the BCI. SACCI takes 13 real measures of the economy and combines them into one number. Things like new vehicle sales, export volumes, retail sales, building plans, inflation, share prices and the rand. If most of those measures improve, the number goes up.
The number is set against 2020, which is fixed at 100. The index uses 2020 as its base year, with 2020 = 100. A July reading of 125.4 therefore means the index is 25.4 points above its 2020 base. One warning from SACCI itself: the BCI can lag behind reality, or run ahead of it. Read it next to other figures, never on its own.
What the July figures show
The index fell sharply in April when the oil price jumped. It has sat around 124 since then. July's 125.4 is the first proper step up, and SACCI thinks the fall is over.
Four things pushed the number up in July:
More new vehicles sold.
More goods exported.
Cheaper energy.
A stronger rand.
Two things pulled it down:
Inflation rose.
The world price of gold and platinum fell.
When compared with July last year, the overall BCI was 8.7 points higher. SACCI says higher inflation was the only factor that had a negative effect on business confidence compared with July 2025, although individual economic indicators remained mixed.
What matters if you serve small business clients
Trade is slow. SACCI runs a separate survey that asks businesses how trade is actually going. In June it read 36. Anything under 50 means more businesses said things got worse than said they got better.
Money is still expensive. Inflation rose to 5.0% in June from 4.5%. The Reserve Bank left rates alone, so prime is still 10.50%. Government bond rates rose during July, from 8.24% to 8.62%. Bond rates often move before lending rates do, so keep an eye on it.
The figure that is a genuinely good sign is that just under a quarter of new vehicles sold in July were light commercial vehicles bought by local buyers. SACCI sees this as a positive sign because light commercial vehicle sales can be a leading indicator of improved business confidence, particularly among SMMEs.
Which of your clients this affects
Construction clients feel it first. Building plans passed are down 16% on last year, and that a warning sign for the construction pipeline, even if a builder with a full order book may not feel the effect immediately. A builder with a full order book will not feel it until the book runs dry.
Manufacturing clients next, with output down 3.7% and US tariffs still moving. Then farming clients, where the pressure is coming from fertiliser and fuel costs rather than crop prices. Then anyone who invoices a municipality, because SACCI flags local government finances as a serious problem this month.
What to do this month
Look at the cash flow projections for construction and manufacturing clients. Base it on the order book for the next 12 months, not last year's turnover.
Check how long municipal and government customers are taking to pay.
Sit down with any client on a variable rate loan. Prime is 10.50% and bond rates rose in July.
Flag 31 August 2026. That is the first provisional tax payment for 2026/27. An IRP6 thrown together in the last week of August is how understatement penalties happen. See our note on Treasury's June collections.
For exporting clients, check the tariff position before they quote. The US rate went to 12.5% on 24 July 2026. Here is what changed.
Confidence rising while liquidations rise is not a contradiction. Confidence looks forward. A liquidation is a business that ran out of cash while everyone else was starting to feel better. Reading both is the job.
