November Trade Surprise: SA Posts R37.7 Billion Surplus Despite Export Dip

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South Africa defied expectations with a sharp jump in its trade surplus for November 2025 clocking in at R37.7 billion. That’s nearly double October’s final figure of R15 billion, despite a month-on-month export decline. What’s going on? The short answer is: imports dropped even faster than exports did.

Key Trade Trends

• 📉 Exports Eased, Imports Tumbled
  Exports slipped by R3.6 billion (-1.9%) from October to November, largely due to drops in citrus, gold, and unwrought aluminium. But imports plummeted by a hefty R26.4 billion (-14.9%), especially in petroleum oils, original equipment components, and passenger vehicles.

• 📊 Year-to-Date Surplus Still Lower
  From January to November 2025, the total trade surplus hit R178.8 billion — slightly below the R182.5 billion recorded during the same period in 2024.

• 🌍 Africa Keeps the Balance Positive
  Trade with Africa continues to anchor the surplus. Exports to the continent (excluding BELN countries) reached R28.8 billion, while imports fell steeply to R8.1 billion — resulting in a strong R20.7 billion surplus.

• 📉 Asia Drags Global Performance
  South Africa’s trade with Asia recorded a deep deficit of R27.2 billion, thanks to continued high imports and softening demand for mineral products and base metals.

• 🛠 Top Export Movers (Oct–Nov 2025):

  • Mineral Products: Up to R43.1 billion

  • Vehicles & Transport Equipment: Slight increase

  • Vegetable Products: Fell by 37%

  • Base Metals: Down 9%

• 🖥 Top Import Movers:

  • Machinery & Electronics: Up 11% to R42.3 billion

  • Mineral Products: Down 24%

  • Original Equipment Components: Down 51%.

Key Takeaways

This trade data isn’t just for economists. For small firms and CFOs, shifts in import/export flows can flag risks (like supply chain price shocks) or opportunities (like new regional sourcing). Africa’s growing surplus with SA could be a cue to explore intra-Africa trade clients.

Bottom line?

Yes, SA posted a strong surplus, but the reliance on import dips over export growth might not be sustainable. Accountants advising export-focused clients should watch global demand trends closely.

For full trade data, visit SARS: Trade Statistics Portal