South Africa’s May Trade Data Swings to Deficit: What Means for Your Clients
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After months of surplus territory, South Africa's trade balance slipped into the red in May 2026. The question your clients in trade-linked sectors will be asking is: is this a blip, or the start of a harder trend?
SARS reported a preliminary trade deficit of R1.8 billion in May 2026, with exports at R178.8 billion and imports at R180.6 billion (including trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia, or BELN). This follows a revised April 2026 surplus of R14.4 billion, which was itself revised down from the preliminary figure of R15.2 billion due to ongoing Vouchers of Correction.
Despite the May dip, the year-to-date position remains positive. From January to May 2026, South Africa recorded a cumulative trade surplus of R85.8 billion, well ahead of the R60.1 billion surplus posted over the same five months in 2025.
Excluding trade with BELN neighbours, the deficit deepens to R11.9 billion for May, with exports of R163.1 billion against imports of R175.1 billion.
What Drove the Shift
Exports fell R10.8 billion (-5.7%) month-on-month from April to May 2026. The main contributors to that drop were:
Precious metals and stones (down 21%), driven primarily by lower gold and platinum group metal exports.
Vehicles and transport equipment (down 7%), including passenger motor vehicles
Mineral products (down 5%)
On the import side, the bill grew by R5.4 billion (3.1%). The main drivers were:
Mineral products (up 17%), largely crude oil
Vehicles and transport equipment (up 12%), particularly passenger vehicles
Original equipment components (up 12%)
On a year-on-year basis, exports were 2.7% higher than May 2025, while imports surged 17.3% compared to the same month last year.
The Africa Story
One bright spot in the May data is trade with the African continent. South Africa's exports to Africa rose 2.8% month-on-month to R45.5 billion, while imports from Africa jumped 17.4% to R27.3 billion, producing a trade surplus of R18.2 billion for that region.
Trade with BELN neighbours specifically delivered a surplus of R10.1 billion in May 2026, with exports of R15.7 billion and imports of R5.6 billion. For accountants with clients in cross-border trade or with operations in neighbouring countries, Africa continues to offer the strongest trade surplus margin. The cumulative 2026 trade surplus for BELN is R48.1 billion, though this is lower than the R54.8 billion posted at the same point in 2025.
What This Means for Accountants and Their Clients
The May deficit is not unusual in isolation. Trade balances fluctuate monthly and are influenced by commodity price cycles, seasonal export patterns, and global demand. The sharper concern is the 17.3% year-on-year rise in imports, which may reflect rising input costs, stronger domestic demand, or increased purchases of imported goods and equipment. Businesses that rely heavily on imports should continue monitoring costs and exchange-rate exposure.
For business accountants advising clients in the following sectors, here is what to flag:
Mining and metals: The sharp drop in PGM and gold exports is worth watching. Clients in this sector should review forward planning assumptions if lower export values persist.
Motor vehicle and component industry: Both exports and imports moved in the same direction (down and up, respectively), which suggests tightening margins for manufacturers and distributors. Review client cost structures and foreign currency exposure.
Energy-linked businesses: Crude oil remained the dominant import item for the fourth consecutive month. Clients with high energy input costs, particularly in logistics, manufacturing, or agriculture, should be reviewing their input cost forecasting.
Import-heavy SMEs: A 17.3% year-on-year rise in imports means clients sourcing goods from Asia or Europe may face higher procurement costs or increased import volumes, making it important to review pricing models and margins. If clients are not adjusting their pricing models, their margins are being quietly squeezed.
Read more on the trade statistics on the SARS website.
Practical Takeaway
Use the May trade data as a client conversation trigger. Ask import-heavy clients whether they have reviewed their landed cost calculations recently. Ask export-reliant clients whether their revenue projections still hold if commodity prices soften further. This is exactly the kind of forward-looking advisory that moves an accountant from compliance provider to trusted business advisor.